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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

Yet the latest field is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still